New Keynesian Model Features that Can Reproduce Lead, Lag and Persistence Patterns

This paper uses a new method for describing dynamic comovement and persistence in economic time series which builds on the contemporaneous forecast error method developed in den Haan (2000). This data description method is then used to address issues in New Keynesian model performance in two ways. First, well known data patterns, such as output and inflation leads and lags and inflation persistence, are decomposed into forecast horizon components to give a more complete description of the data patterns. These results show that the well known lead and lag patterns between output and inflation arise mostly in the medium term forecasts horizons. Second, the data summary method is used to investigate a rich New Keynesian model with many modeling features to see which of these features can reproduce lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data. Many studies have suggested that a backward looking component in the Phillips curve is needed to match the data, but our simulations show this is not necessary. We show that a simple general equilibrium model with persistent IS curve shocks and persistent supply shocks can reproduce the lead, lag and persistence patterns seen in the data.

Long-Term Growth and Persistence with Endogenous Depreciation: Theory and Evidence

Previous research has shown a strong positive correlation between short-term persistence and long-term output growth as well as between depreciation rates and long-term output growth. This evidence, therefore, contradicts the standard predictions from traditional neoclassical or AK-type growth models with exogenous depreciation. In this paper, we first confirm these findings for a larger sample of 101 countries. We then study the dynamics of growth and persistence in a model where both the depreciation rate and growth are endogenous and procyclical. We find that the model s predictions become consistent with the empirical evidence on persistence, long-term growth and depreciation rates.

On the Informational Role of Term Structure in the U.S. Monetary Policy Rule

This paper uses a structural approach based on the indirect inference principle to estimate a standard version of the new Keynesian monetary (NKM) model augmented with term structure using both revised and real-time data. The estimation results show that the term spread and policy inertia are both important determinants of the U.S. estimated monetary policy rule whereas the persistence of shocks plays a small but significant role when revised and real-time data of output and inflation are both considered. More importantly, the relative importance of term spread and persistent shocks in the policy rule and the shock transmission mechanism drastically change when it is taken into account that real-time data are not well behaved.

The Loss of Functional Caspase-12 in Europe Is a Pre-Neolithic Event

6 p.

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) genotype 18 variants in patients with clinical manifestations of HPV related infections in Bilbao, Spain

Background:Human papillomavirus (HPV) variants differ in their biological and chemical properties, and therefore, may present differences in pathogenicity. Most authors classified variants based on the phylogenetic analysis of L1 region. Nevertheless, recombination in HPV samples is becoming a usual finding and thus, characterizing genetic variability in other regions should be essential. Objectives:We aimed to characterize the genetic variability of HPV 18 in 5 genomic regions: E6, E7, E4, L1 and the Upstream Regulatory Region (URR), working with both single infection and multiple HPV infection samples. Furthermore, we aimed to assess the prevalence of HPV 18 variants in our region and look for possible existence of recombination as well as analyze the relationship between these variants and the type of lesion. Methods: From 2007 to 2010, Clinical Microbiology and Infection Control Department analyzed 44 samples which were positive for HPV 18. Genetic variability was determined in PCR products and variants were assigned to European, Asian-amerindian or African lineage. Recombination and association of variants with different types of lesion was studied. Results: Genetic analysis of the regions revealed a total of 56 nucleotide variations. European, African and Asian-amerindian variants were found in 25/44 (56.8%), 10/44 (22.7%) and 5/44 (11.4%) samples, respectively. We detected the presence of recombinant variants in 2/44 (4.5%) cases. Samples taken from high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (H-SIL) only presented variants with specific-african substitutions. Conclusions: Multiple HPV infection, non-european HPV variants prevalence and existence of recombination are considered risk factors for HPV persistence and progression of intraepithelial abnormalities, and therefore, should be taken into consideration in order to help to design and optimize diagnostics protocols as well as improve epidemiologic studies. Our study is one of the few studies in Spain which analyses the genetic variability of HPV18 and we showed the importance of characterizing more than one genomic region in order to detect recombination and classify HPV variants properly

The Influence of the Val158Met Catechol-O-Methyltransferase Polymorphism on the Personality Traits of Bipolar Patients

6 p.

How central are clients in sexual networks created by commercial sex?

Sex workers are traditionally considered important vectors of transmission of sexually transmitted infections (STI). The role of clients is commonly overlooked, partially due to the lack of evidence on clients' position in the sexual network created by commercial sex. Contrasting the diffusion importance of sex workers and their clients in the map of their sexual encounters in two Web-mediated communities, we find that from diffusion perspective, clients are as important as sex workers. Their diffusion importance is closely linked to the geography of the sexual encounters: as a result of different movement patterns, travelling clients shorten network distances between distant network neighborhoods and thus facilitate contagion among them more than sex workers, and find themselves more often in the core of the network by which they could contribute to the persistence of STIs in the community. These findings position clients into the set of the key actors and highlight the role of human mobility in the transmission of STIs in commercial sexual networks.

Community Turnover of Wood-Inhabiting Fungi across Hierarchical Spatial Scales

For efficient use of conservation resources it is important to determine how species diversity changes across spatial scales. In many poorly known species groups little is known about at which spatial scales the conservation efforts should be focused. Here we examined how the community turnover of wood-inhabiting fungi is realised at three hierarchical levels, and how much of community variation is explained by variation in resource composition and spatial proximity. The hierarchical study design consisted of management type (fixed factor), forest site (random factor, nested within management type) and study plots (randomly placed plots within each study site). To examine how species richness varied across the three hierarchical scales, randomized species accumulation curves and additive partitioning of species richness were applied. To analyse variation in wood-inhabiting species and dead wood composition at each scale, linear and Permanova modelling approaches were used. Wood-inhabiting fungal communities were dominated by rare and infrequent species. The similarity of fungal communities was higher within sites and within management categories than among sites or between the two management categories, and it decreased with increasing distance among the sampling plots and with decreasing similarity of dead wood resources. However, only a small part of community variation could be explained by these factors. The species present in managed forests were in a large extent a subset of those species present in natural forests. Our results suggest that in particular the protection of rare species requires a large total area. As managed forests have only little additional value complementing the diversity of natural forests, the conservation of natural forests is the key to ecologically effective conservation. As the dissimilarity of fungal communities increases with distance, the conserved natural forest sites should be broadly distributed in space, yet the individual conserved areas should be large enough to ensure local persistence.

A chemically inert Rashba split interface electronic structure of C-60, FeOEP and PTCDA on BiAg2/Ag(111) substrates

The fields of organic electronics and spintronics have the potential to revolutionize the electronics industry. Finding the right materials that can retain their electrical and spin properties when combined is a technological and fundamental challenge. We carry out the study of three archetypal organic molecules in intimate contact with the BiAg2 surface alloy. We show that the BiAg2 alloy is an especially suited substrate due to its inertness as support for molecular films, exhibiting an almost complete absence of substrate-molecular interactions. This is inferred from the persistence of a completely unaltered giant spin-orbit split surface state of the BiAg2 substrate, and from the absence of significant metallic screening of charged molecular levels in the organic layer. Spin-orbit split states in BiAg2 turn out to be far more robust to organic overlayers than previously thought.

Eficiencia y persistencia de los fondos de inversión inmobiliaria en España

[ES] El presente trabajo tiene como objeto el estudio de la eficiencia y persistencia de los rendimientos del total de fondos de inversión inmobiliaria españoles, desde el inicio de su actividad a finales de 1994 a agosto de 2012. Para este propósito se ha utilizado el alfa de Jensen, la ratio de Sharpe, y la aproximación propuesta por Carhart (1997). En cuanto a la eficiencia, la ratio de Sharpe presenta valores negativos en los tres primeros años de actividad de cada fondo y valores muy bajos o incluso negativos en los tres o cuatro últimos años. El indicador de Jensen muestra que la mayoría de los fondos presentan un rendimiento inferior al del mercado, aproximado mediante la rentabilidad de la vivienda y una media de la rentabilidad de todos los fondos inmobiliarios. Carteras de referencia vinculadas a los mercados de deuda o bolsa, no resultan significativas. En el análisis de la persistencia de los rendimientos se confirma su existencia a plazo de uno, dos, tres y cuatro años, para todos los fondos. La evidencia obtenida en nuestro trabajo para los fondos inmobiliarios en España, eficiencia inferior a la del mercado y persistencia en los rendimientos, nos permite confirmar la difícil situación que ha atravesado y en la que sigue inmersa este tipo de inversión colectiva, poniendo de manifiesto la necesidad y la urgencia de medidas impulsoras de su actividad.